First up, I have to say that I was actively disappointed in the Academy Award nominations this year. I blogged my feelings live as they noms happened. There were a lot of not-great surprises. Like Challengers being shut out completely.
I’m still unhappy with a lot of the nominations, but I’m a completionist, so I’ve watched most of ’em so that I can make educated decisions on Oscar Night, my favorite holiday of every year.
But since my opinions of last year’s films differed so much from the Oscars, here are my top ten (and where to watch them, of course):
Valley Of Oh’s Top Ten Movies of the 2025 Oscar Season
- Challengers (Amazon Prime)
- Flow (Max)
- Babygirl (VOD)
- Conclave (Peacock)
- Thelma (Hulu)
- Nosferatu (Peacock)
- Anora (VOD)
- A Complete Unknown (VOD)
- The Substance (MUBI)
- Problemista (MAX)
Honorable mentions: Civil War (Max), The Apprentice (VOD), A Different Man (Hulu), La Cocina (VOD)
Now, here are my 2025 Oscar picks, with some bitter commentary. I compared who the oddsmakers are predicting vs. who I think oughta win.
Best Picture
Anora (Alex Coco, Samantha Quan, and Sean Baker, Producers)
The Brutalist (Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenhei,m and Brady Corbet, Producers)
A Complete Unknown (Fred Berger, James Mangold, and Alex Heineman, Producers)
Conclave (Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell, and Michael A. Jackman, Producers)
Dune: Part Two (Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, and Denis Villeneuve, Producers)
Emilia Pérez (Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, Producers)
I’m Still Here (Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, Producers)
Nickel Boys (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, and Joslyn Barnes, Producers)
The Substance (Coralie Fargeat, Tim Bevan, and Eric Fellner, Producers)
Wicked (Marc Platt, Producer)
Will win, according to odds: Anora
Should win, according to Jacki: Conclave
Directing
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Will win, according to odds: Sean Baker for Anora
Should win, according to Jacki: Coralie Fargeat for The Substance
Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Will win, according to odds: Adrien Brody for The Brutalist
Should win, according to Jacki: Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice
Literally, anyone other than Adiren Brody could win this, and I will yelp with happiness. He does NOT deserve this win. He was NOT that great. Every single other performance in this category (and some that weren’t even nominated) deserves to win more than he does.
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Will win, according to odds: Demi Moore for The Substance
Should win, according to Jacki: Demi Moore for The Substance
Also acceptable: Mikey Madison for Anora. I’ve not been able to watch I’m Still Here, yet, but I hear Torres’ performance is stellar. So I’d be okay with that for a win, too. Cynthia Erivo shouldn’t win here, but I think she will be nominated again for part 2 (even though there shouldn’t need to be part 2) and possibly win there.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Will win, according to odds: Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain
Should win, according to Jacki: Guy Pearce for The Brutalist
Look, I know I’m loud about not enjoying the manipulative movie that Guy Pearce was in, but he commanded such respect on the screen. Hell, it took me about an hour to even realize that it WAS Guy Pearce.
I love Kieran, and his performance was fantastic… in all honesty, though… I think it was the weakest in the category. This will be fun to watch, no matter who wins.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Will win, according to odds: Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez
Should win, according to Jacki: Ariana Grande for Wicked
Ariana Grande nailed this. Full stop. The only other person in this category who can touch her performance is Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
A Complete Unknown (Screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks)
Conclave (Screenplay by Peter Straughan)
Emilia Pérez (Screenplay by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi)
Nickel Boys (Screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield)
Will win, according to odds: Conclave (Screenplay by Peter Straughan)
Should win, according to Jacki: Conclave (Screenplay by Peter Straughan)
This script turned what I thought would be a dry drama movie into something as juicy as a Real Housewives franchise. It is masterful.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Anora (Written by Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Written by Jesse Eisenberg)
September 5 (Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David)
The Substance (Written by Coralie Fargeat)
Will win, according to odds: Anora (Written by Sean Baker)
Should win, according to Jacki: The Substance (Written by Coralie Fargeat)
I don’t think this will happen, but it would be cool. I’m also cool with Anora winning. I kind of don’t want Jesse Eisenberg to win this year, because I know this is just the beginning for him. He’s gonna write better scripts each time, and that’s what I want to see awarded.
Animated Feature Film
Flow (Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens, and Gregory Zalcman)
Inside Out 2 (Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen)
Memoir of a Snail (Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney)
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham, and Richard Beek)
The Wild Robot (Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann)
Will win, according to odds: The Wild Robot (Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann)
Should win, according to Jacki: Flow (Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens, and Gregory Zalcman)
All of the love and awards-show passion that I had for Challengers got shifted over to Flow once the former received ZERO NOMINATIONS FOR SOME DUMB REASON. Suffice it to say I am very passionate about this award, and I really want Flow to win.
Animated Short Film
Beautiful Men (Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Van Elslande)
In the Shadow of the Cypress (Shirin Sohani and Hossein Molayemi)
Magic Candies (Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio)
Wander to Wonder (Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper)
Yuck! (Loïc Espuche and Juliette Marquet)
Will win, according to odds: Beautiful Men (Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Van Elslande)
Should win, according to Jacki: Wander to Wonder (Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper)
Cinematography
The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
Dune: Part Two (Greig Fraser)
Emilia Pérez (Paul Guilhaume)
Maria (Ed Lachman)
Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)
Will win, according to odds: The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
Should win, according to Jacki: Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)
Nosferatu got me horny for movie-making again, and the crisp cinematography was a big part of that.
Costume Design
A Complete Unknown (Arianne Phillips)
Conclave (Lisy Christl)
Gladiator II (Janty Yates and Dave Crossman)
Nosferatu (Linda Muir)
Wicked (Paul Tazewell)
Will win, according to odds: Wicked (Paul Tazewell)
Should win, according to Jacki: Wicked (Paul Tazewell)
Deserves. But I’d also be happy with Conclave or Nosferatu sneaking in there.
Film Editing
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (David Jancso)
Conclave (Nick Emerson)
Emilia Pérez (Juliette Welfling)
Wicked (Myron Kerstein)
Will win, according to odds: Conclave (Nick Emerson)
Should win, according to Jacki: Conclave (Nick Emerson)
Literally, anything other than Emilia could win this, and I’d be happy.
Makeup and Hairstyling
A Different Man (Mike Marino, David Presto, and Crystal Jurado)
Emilia Pérez (Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini)
Nosferatu (David White, Traci Loader, and Suzanne Stokes-Munton)
The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli)
Wicked (Frances Hannon, Laura Blount, and Sarah Nuth)
Will win, according to odds: The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli)
Should win, according to Jacki: The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli)
See above. I don’t think this is the right year for Wicked, either, though.
Live-Action Short Film
A Lien (Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz)
Anuja (Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai)
I’m Not a Robot (Victoria Warmerdam and Trent)
The Last Ranger (Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw)
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek)
Will win, according to odds: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek)
Should win, according to Jacki: A Lien (Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz)
Music (Original Score)
The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)
Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)
Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol and Camille)
Wicked (John Powell and Stephen Schwartz)
The Wild Robot (Kris Bowers)
Will win, according to odds: The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)
Should win, according to Jacki: Challengers (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
The only way I will be happy with a winner in this category is if Challengers wins in a write-in campaign. I will be actively pissed ifThe Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, or Wicked wins.
Music (Original Song)
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada)
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (Music and Lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol)
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (Music and Lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin)
Will win, according to odds: “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)
Should win, according to Jacki: “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
All of these options are trash, respectively, aside from “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing.
Documentary Feature Film
Black Box Diaries (Shiori Ito, Eric Nyari, and Hanna Aqvilin)
No Other Land (Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham)
Porcelain War (Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska and Paula DuPre’ Pesmen)
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius, and Rémi Grellety)
Sugarcane (Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassi,e and Kellen Quinn)
Will win, according to odds: No Other Land (Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham)
Should win, according to Jacki: No Other Land (Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham)
Documentary Short Film
Death by Numbers (Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard)
I Am Ready, Warden (Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp)
Incident (Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven)
Instruments of a Beating Heart (Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari)
The Only Girl in the Orchestra (Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington)
Will win, according to odds: I Am Ready, Warden (Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp)
Should win, according to Jacki: The Only Girl in the Orchestra (Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington)
International Feature Film
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)
Will win, according to odds: I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Should win, according to Jacki: Flow (Latvia)
I want this to happen so bad, y’all.
Production Design
The Brutalist (Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia)
Conclave (Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter)
Dune: Part Two (Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau)
Nosferatu (Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová)
Wicked (Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales)
Will win, according to odds: Wicked (Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales)
Should win, according to Jacki: Conclave (Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter) OR Nosferatu (Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová)
Can we have a tie? The lushness of Conclave vs the starkness of Nosferatu.
Sound
A Complete Unknown (Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey, and David Giammarco)
Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill)
Emilia Pérez (Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta)
Wicked (Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson, and John Marquis)
The Wild Robot (Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo, and Leff Lefferts)
Will win, according to odds: Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill)
Should win, according to Jacki: A Complete Unknown (Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco)
The music sound is so hard to get right, and this movie DID.
Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus (Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Mahan)
Better Man (Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs)
Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke)
Wicked (Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk, and Paul Corbould)
Will win, according to odds: Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer)
Should win, according to Jacki: Better Man (Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs)
Kinda just want to see this one win.
Til Sunday:
Okay, so that’s it! I’ll be holed up in the Princess TV room on Sunday night, emoting heavily all over the place. I miss having Oscar parties so much, though, y’all.
No one is ever as passionate about this as I am, but it felt good to be surrounded by folks who were close!
You can watch the Oscars on Hulu on Sunday at 8 pm!
